Model Comparison - Historical¶
Table of Contents¶
The purpose of this section of the En-ROADS User Guide is to supplement the historical comparison graphs in the En-ROADS application by sharing multiple (37 in fact) comparisons of En-ROADS model behavior compared against measured historical data.
En-ROADS uses historical data for two purposes: initialization of the simulation and calibration. Certain variables in En-ROADS are initialized with their measured historical values from 1990, and then the model runs. We compare the model output from 1990 through present day to measured historical data to identify opportunities for model improvement.
The graphs below compare the En-ROADS Baseline scenario to measured historical data for select variables (not all variables are included here). The historical data is derived from the following sources:
BP. (2020). Statistical Review of World Energy 2020.
GISTEMP Team. (2021). GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), version 4. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
Global Carbon Project. (2020). Carbon budget and trends 2020. [CO2 energy emissions only]
Houghton, R. A., & Nassikas, A.A. (2017). Global and regional fluxes of carbon from land use and land cover change 1850–2015. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 31. [CO2 land use emissions only]
IEA. (2020). World Energy Outlook 2020.
IRENA. (2020). Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019.
Lazard. (2020). Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis - Version 13.0.
Met Office: Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A., Winn, J. P., Hogan, E., Killick, R. E., et al. (2020). An updated assessment of near-surface temperature change from 1850: the HadCRUT5 dataset. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126, e2019JD032361.
NOAA Mauna Loa Observatory. (2020). Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide.
PRIMAP: Gütschow, J.; Günther, A.; Jeffery, L.; Gieseke, R. (2021). The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850-2018). v2.2. [Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions only]
Five historical comparison graphs are also included in the En-ROADS app under Graphs > Model Comparison - Historical and are included and disaggregated here:
Primary Energy Demand History¶
Global primary energy demand of energy sources for the En-ROADS Baseline compared to IEA historical data. This is measured in exajoules per year (joules x 1018/year) for electric and nonelectric sources combined.
Primary energy refers to the total energy from a raw energy source that is converted into consumable energy. For example, primary coal energy demand refers to the total energy in coal that is mined, processed, and consumed. Primary energy is greater than final energy consumption because it accounts for inefficiencies in fuel processing, thermal conversion, and transmission and distribution (T&D).
Historical data: International Energy Agency (2020), BP (2020)
Total Primary Energy Demand¶
Primary Energy from Coal¶
Primary Energy from Oil¶
Primary Energy from Natural Gas¶
Final Energy Consumption History¶
Global total final energy consumption of energy sources in exajoules/year (joules x 1018/year) for electric and nonelectric sources combined in the En-ROADS Baseline compared to historical data.
Final energy consumption is the total energy consumed to meet the demand of all final end uses. For example, how much electricity a lightbulb uses or how much fuel a truck burns are measures of final energy consumption. It does not include transmission and distribution (T&D) losses or inefficiencies, which, in contrast, are accounted for in primary energy demand.
Final energy consumption is divided into two end uses: stationary (buildings and industry) and transport.
Historical data: International Energy Agency (2020)
Total Final Energy Consumption¶
Total Final Energy Consumption - Buildings & Industry¶
Total Final Energy Consumption - Transport¶
Total Final Energy Consumption - Electric Buildings & Industry¶
Electricity Generated by Energy Source History¶
The electricity generated by each energy source in the En-ROADS Baseline compared to historical data.
Historical data: International Energy Agency (2020), BP (2020)
Electricity Generated by Coal¶
Electricity Generated by Oil¶
Electricity Generated by Natural Gas¶
Electricity Generated by Nuclear¶
Electricity Generated by Bioenergy¶
Electricity Generated by Hydro¶
Electricity Generated by Solar¶
Electricity Generated by Wind¶
Electricity Generated by Geothermal¶
Marginal Cost of Wind, Solar, and Geothermal Electricity History¶
The marginal cost of electricity production from wind, solar, and geothermal energy in dollars ($US 2017) per kilowatt hour (kWh) in the En-ROADS Baseline compared to historical data. This is the marginal cost for energy producers to make electricity from a new solar, wind, or geothermal installation. The cost factors in how much it costs to build new energy generation facilities (the levelized capital costs) and how much it costs to operate and maintain new facilities (O&M).
For solar, the En-ROADS Baseline is shown relative to historical data from Lazard, IRENA, and IEA. The IEA & IRENA curve is calculated from IEA (2020) capital costs per GW from 1990-2019 relative to its 2010 value, and multiplied by IRENA’s 2010 levelized cost of energy (LCOE) (2020).
For wind, the En-ROADS Baseline is shown relative to historical data from Lazard and IRENA. For geothermal, the En-ROADS Baseline is shown relative to historical data from Lazard.
Historical data: International Renewable Energy Agency (2020), Lazard (2020), International Energy Agency (2020)
Marginal Cost of Wind¶
Marginal Cost of Solar¶
Global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) in the En-ROADS Baseline and historical data, in Gigatons of CO2 or CO2 equivalents per year. CO2 equivalents are used to standardize the effect of all greenhouse gases in terms of CO2.
The Greenhouse Gas Net Emissions graph measures the total gross greenhouse gas emissions minus the total net anthropogenic carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Contributions to gross GHGs are from carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and the F-gases (PFCs, SF6 and HFCs).
CO2 emissions from energy over 1990-2019 are from Global Carbon Budget (2020) data, CO2 emissions from land use & forestry over 1990-2015 from Houghton and Nassikas (2017) data, and non-CO2 GHG emissions over 1990-2017 are from PRIMAP 2.1 (2019).
Historical data: Global Carbon Project (2020), PRIMAP (2019), Houghton & Nassikas (2017), International Energy Agency (2020)
Greenhouse Gas Net Emissions¶
CO2 Emissions from Energy¶
CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels¶
Atmospheric Concentrations History¶
The total concentration of CO2, CH4, and N2O in parts per million (ppm) of CO2 equivalents in the atmosphere in the En-ROADS Baseline compared to historical data.
Carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) are calculated from the 100-year global warming potential of each gas (IPCC AR5) for reporting purposes. Note the radiative forcing of each gas is modeled explicitly as a function of its atmospheric cycle and radiative efficiency.
Historical data: NOAA Mauna Loa Observatory (2020), Met Office Hadley Centre (2020)
CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere¶
CH4 Concentration in the Atmosphere¶
Radiative Forcing History¶
The radiative forcing due to CO2, CH4, N2O, and halocarbons in the atmosphere, in Watts per meter squared (W/m2), in the En-ROADS Baseline compared to historical data. Halocarbons refer to F-gases (PFCs, SF6, and HFCs) and Montreal Protocol gases.
Greenhouse gases absorb infrared radiation and re-radiate it back, causing an increase in surface temperature. Radiative forcing measures the difference between energy absorbed by the Earth and energy radiated back into space. When incoming energy is greater than outgoing energy, RF is positive and the planet will warm.
Historical data: NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (2020)
CO2 Radiative Forcing¶
CH4 Radiative Forcing¶
N2O Radiative Forcing¶
Temperature change from 1850 in the En-ROADS Baseline compared to historical data, in degrees Celsius. NASA (GISTEMP v4) includes the average and the lower and upper 95% confidence intervals. Met Office Hadley Centre produced the HADCRUT5 data.
Historical data: NASA (2020) and Met Office Hadley Centre (2020)