Model Comparison - Historical

Table of Contents

  1. Primary Energy Demand History
  2. Final Energy Consumption History
  3. Electricity Generated by Energy Source History
  4. Marginal Cost of Wind, Solar, and Geothermal Electricity History
  5. Emissions History
  6. Atmospheric Concentrations History
  7. Radiative Forcing History
  8. Temperature History

The purpose of this section of the En-ROADS User Guide is to supplement the historical comparison graphs in the En-ROADS application by sharing multiple (37 in fact) comparisons of En-ROADS model behavior compared against measured historical data.

En-ROADS uses historical data for two purposes: initialization of the simulation and calibration. Certain variables in En-ROADS are initialized with their measured historical values from 1990, and then the model runs. We compare the model output from 1990 through present day to measured historical data to identify opportunities for model improvement.

The graphs below compare the En-ROADS Baseline scenario to measured historical data for select variables (not all variables are included here). The historical data is derived from the following sources:

  • International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook (WEO) (2020)
  • British Petroleum (BP) Statistical Review of World Energy (2020)
  • Lazard (2020)
  • International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) (2020)
  • Global Carbon Project (GCP) (2020) (CO2 energy emissions only)
  • PRIMAP 2.1 (2019) (Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions only)
  • Houghton and Nassikas (2017) (CO2 land use emissions only)
  • NASA GISTEMP v4 (2020)
  • Met Office Hadley Centre HadCRUT5 1850-2020 (2020)
  • NOAA Mauna Loa Observatory (2020)

Five historical comparison graphs are also included in the En-ROADS app under Graphs > Model Comparison - Historical and are included and disaggregated here:

Primary Energy Demand History

Global primary energy demand of energy sources for the En-ROADS Baseline compared to IEA historical data. This is measured in exajoules per year (joules x 1018/year) for electric and nonelectric sources combined.

Primary energy refers to the total energy from a raw energy source that is converted into consumable energy. For example, primary coal energy demand refers to the total energy in coal that is mined, processed, and consumed. Primary energy is greater than final energy consumption because it accounts for inefficiencies in fuel processing, thermal conversion, and transmission and distribution (T&D).

Historical data: International Energy Agency (2020), BP (2020)

Total Primary Energy Demand

../_images/Hist_Total_Primary_Energy.png

Primary Energy from Coal

../_images/Hist_PE_Coal.png

Primary Energy from Oil

../_images/Hist_PE_Oil.png

Primary Energy from Natural Gas

../_images/Hist_PE_Gas.png

Primary Energy from Nuclear

../_images/Hist_PE_Nuclear.png

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Final Energy Consumption History

Global total final energy consumption of energy sources in exajoules/year (joules x 1018/year) for electric and nonelectric sources combined in the En-ROADS Baseline compared to historical data.

Final energy consumption is the total energy consumed to meet the demand of all final end uses. For example, how much electricity a lightbulb uses or how much fuel a truck burns are measures of final energy consumption. It does not include transmission and distribution (T&D) losses or inefficiencies, which, in contrast, are accounted for in primary energy demand.

Final energy consumption is divided into two end uses: stationary (buildings and industry) and transport.

Historical data: International Energy Agency (2020)

Total Final Energy Consumption

../_images/Hist_TFC.png

Total Final Energy Consumption - Buildings & Industry

../_images/Hist_TFC_Stationary.png

Total Final Energy Consumption - Transport

../_images/Hist_TFC_Transport.png

Total Final Energy Consumption - Electric Buildings & Industry

../_images/Hist_TFC_Electric_Stationary.png

Total Final Energy Consumption - Electric Transport

../_images/Hist_TFC_Electric_Transport.png

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Electricity Generated by Energy Source History

The electricity generated by each energy source in the En-ROADS Baseline compared to historical data.

Historical data: International Energy Agency (2020), BP (2020)

Electricity Generated by Coal

../_images/Hist_Electricity_Generated_Coal.png

Electricity Generated by Oil

../_images/Hist_Electricity_Generated_Oil.png

Electricity Generated by Natural Gas

../_images/Hist_Electricity_Generated_Gas.png

Electricity Generated by Nuclear

../_images/Hist_Electricity_Generated_Nuclear.png

Electricity Generated by Bioenergy

../_images/Hist_Electricity_Generated_Bio.png

Electricity Generated by Hydro

../_images/Hist_Electricity_Generated_Hydro.png

Electricity Generated by Solar

../_images/Hist_Electricity_Generated_Solar.png

Electricity Generated by Wind

../_images/Hist_Electricity_Generated_Wind.png

Electricity Generated by Geothermal

../_images/Hist_Electricity_Generated_Geothermal.png

Electricity Generated by Other Renewables

../_images/Hist_Electricity_Generated_Other_Renewables.png

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Marginal Cost of Wind, Solar, and Geothermal Electricity History

The marginal cost of electricity production from wind, solar, and geothermal energy in dollars ($US 2017) per kilowatt hour (kWh) in the En-ROADS Baseline compared to historical data. This is the marginal cost for energy producers to make electricity from a new solar, wind, or geothermal installation. The cost factors in how much it costs to build new energy generation facilities (the levelized capital costs) and how much it costs to operate and maintain new facilities (O&M).

For solar, the En-ROADS Baseline is shown relative to historical data from Lazard, IRENA, and IEA. The IEA & IRENA curve is calculated from IEA (2020) capital costs per GW from 1990-2019 relative to its 2010 value, and multiplied by IRENA’s 2010 levelized cost of energy (LCOE) (2020).

For wind, the En-ROADS Baseline is shown relative to historical data from Lazard and IRENA. For geothermal, the En-ROADS Baseline is shown relative to historical data from Lazard.

Historical data: International Renewable Energy Agency (2020), Lazard (2020), International Energy Agency (2020)

Marginal Cost of Wind

../_images/Hist_Marginal_Cost_Wind.png

Marginal Cost of Solar

../_images/Hist_Marginal_Cost_Solar.png

Marginal Cost of Geothermal

../_images/Hist_Marginal_Cost_Geothermal.png

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Emissions History

Global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) in the En-ROADS Baseline and historical data, in Gigatons of CO2 or CO2 equivalents per year. CO2 equivalents are used to standardize the effect of all greenhouse gases in terms of CO2.

The Greenhouse Gas Net Emissions graph measures the total gross greenhouse gas emissions minus the total net anthropogenic carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Contributions to gross GHGs are from carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and the F-gases (PFCs, SF6 and HFCs).

CO2 emissions from energy over 1990-2019 are from Global Carbon Budget (2020) data, CO2 emissions from land use & forestry over 1990-2015 from Houghton and Nassikas (2017) data, and non-CO2 GHG emissions over 1990-2017 are from PRIMAP 2.1 (2019).

Historical data: Global Carbon Project (2020), PRIMAP (2019), Houghton & Nassikas (2017), International Energy Agency (2020)

Greenhouse Gas Net Emissions

../_images/Hist_CO2_equiv.png

CO2 Emissions from Energy

../_images/Hist_CO2_energy.png

CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels

../_images/Hist_CO2_fossil_fuels.png

CH4 Emissions

../_images/Hist_CH4.png

N2O Emissions

../_images/Hist_N2O.png

Atmospheric Concentrations History

The total concentration of CO2, CH4, and N2O in parts per million (ppm) of CO2 equivalents in the atmosphere in the En-ROADS Baseline compared to historical data.

Carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) are calculated from the 100-year global warming potential of each gas (IPCC AR5) for reporting purposes. Note the radiative forcing of each gas is modeled explicitly as a function of its atmospheric cycle and radiative efficiency.

Historical data: NOAA Mauna Loa Observatory (2020), Met Office Hadley Centre (2020)

CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere

../_images/Hist_CO2_in_atmosphere.png

CH4 Concentration in the Atmosphere

../_images/Hist_CH4_in_atmosphere.png

N2O Concentration in the Atmosphere

../_images/Hist_N2O_in_atmosphere.png

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Radiative Forcing History

The radiative forcing due to CO2, CH4, N2O, and halocarbons in the atmosphere, in Watts per meter squared (W/m2), in the En-ROADS Baseline compared to historical data. Halocarbons refer to F-gases (PFCs, SF6, and HFCs) and Montreal Protocol gases.

Greenhouse gases absorb infrared radiation and re-radiate it back, causing an increase in surface temperature. Radiative forcing measures the difference between energy absorbed by the Earth and energy radiated back into space. When incoming energy is greater than outgoing energy, RF is positive and the planet will warm.

Historical data: NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (2020)

CO2 Radiative Forcing

../_images/Hist_CO2_RF.png

CH4 Radiative Forcing

../_images/Hist_CH4_RF.png

N2O Radiative Forcing

../_images/Hist_N2O_RF.png

Halocarbon Radiative Forcing

../_images/Hist_Halocarbon_RF.png

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Temperature History

Temperature change from 1850 in the En-ROADS Baseline compared to historical data, in degrees Celsius. NASA (GISTEMP v4) includes the average and the lower and upper 95% confidence intervals. Met Office Hadley Centre produced the HADCRUT5 data.

Historical data: NASA (2020) and Met Office Hadley Centre (2020)

../_images/Hist_Temperature.png

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