Population Growth¶
Assume higher or lower population growth. Population is a key driver of increased greenhouse gases; however, this is also tied heavily to consumption habits. Women’s education and access to family planning could accelerate shifts to smaller families worldwide.
Examples¶
- Different assumptions for future fertility rates and demographics.
- Greater empowerment of women and girls, resulting in lower fertility rates.
- Increased education on and access to reproductive health services.
Big Message¶
- Contrary to some people’s beliefs, population growth is not a silver bullet for addressing climate change.
- Decisions around population and family choice are very personal decisions and efforts to shift these decisions have ethical implications in many cultures.
Key Dynamics¶
- Watch all the sources of energy change as you change population growth.
Potential Co-Benefits of Lower Growth¶
- Lower population growth reduces global consumption of resources.
- Ensuring safe access to family planning, reproductive health services, and women’s education enhances quality of life and income for women.
Equity Considerations¶
- Policies around population should be voluntary and empower women to make the choices that are best for them.
- A higher percentage of women of color live in countries with severe gender inequities in access to education, full economic and political participation, and adequate family planning. Reducing population growth necessitates a large investment in that particular group.
- There is a history of women of color in both high- and low-income countries being forcibly sterilized to prevent giving birth; this should never be encouraged. [1] [2] [3] [4]
Slider Settings¶
The slider reflects the 95% probability range of population deviating from the United Nation’s medium population growth path. The variable being changed reflects the global population by 2100, in billions of people.
| lowest growth | low growth | status quo | high growth | highest growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UN Scenario | low end of UN’s 95% range | middle of of UN’s 95% range | high end of UN’s 95% range | ||
| Population in 2100 | 9.1 to 9.5 billion | 9.5 to 10.5 billion | 10.5 to 11.4 billion | 11.4 to 12.8 billion | 12.8 to 13.2 billion |
Model Structure¶
Population gets multiplied with economic growth (GDP per capita) to equal total global GDP, or Gross World Product.
Please visit support.climateinteractive.org for additional inquires and support.
Footnotes
| [1] | Bi, S. (2015). Forced Sterilizations of HIV-Positive Women: A Global Ethics and Policy Failure. AMA Journal of Ethics, 17(10), 952–957. doi: 10.1001/journalofethics.2015.17.10.pfor2-1510 |
| [2] | White, H. (2014, May 28). African women fight back against forced, coerced sterilizations. https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/african-women-fight-back-against-forced-coerced-sterilizations |
| [3] | Nittle, N. K. (2020, January 9). U.S. Government’s Role in Sterilizing Women of Color. https://www.thoughtco.com/u-s-governments-role-sterilizing-women-of-color-2834600 |
| [4] | Blakemore, E. (2016, August 25). The Little-Known History of the Forced Sterilization of Native American Women. JSTOR Daily. https://daily.jstor.org/the-little-known-history-of-the-forced-sterilization-of-native-american-women/ |