Coal🔗
Discourage or encourage mining coal and burning it in power plants. Coal is the most harmful fossil fuel fossil fuels: Coal, oil, and natural gas. Fuel derived from the remains of ancient plants and animals. in terms of carbon emissions, as well as in air pollutants that cause severe health impacts. It is a dominant source of energy globally, however, because it is relatively inexpensive to mine and transport. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can capture some emissions from coal, but it is not yet used widely and faces barriers to deployment.
Examples🔗
Discouraging coal:
- Government policies that phase out power plants or make them more expensive in any way, such as removing current subsidies or implementing taxes on coal.
- Financial services industry (e.g., banks) or global development institutions (e.g., World Bank) limiting access to financial capital for new coal mining, refining, and power plant infrastructure.
Big Messages🔗
Discouraging coal is a high leverage strategy for reducing future temperature change. Coal emits more carbon dioxide when it is burned than either oil or natural gas (coal has the highest carbon intensity).
Discouraging coal also improves public health and saves medical costs through improved air quality. Coal plants emit particulate matter PM2.5: Particulate matter (tiny particles that can be inhaled) in the air of 2.5 micrometers or less in diameter. This is a category of air pollution that is associated with significant health impacts and is responsible for millions of deaths worldwide each year. and other forms of air pollution that lead to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and premature deaths.1
Key Dynamics🔗
Impact. When coal is discouraged, watch the brown area of Coal go down in the “Global Sources of Primary Energy” graph. It is one of the most sensitive energy supplies to any increase in cost because unlike oil, coal can often be replaced by natural gas (for heating or electricity) or renewables (for electricity).
“Squeezing the Balloon.” When coal is discouraged, notice what happens to natural gas in response. Unless there are restrictions on gas, its demand will go up in response to expensive coal. We call this the “squeezing the balloon” problem—reducing fossil fuel emissions in one area causes them to pop up in another. Renewables are also boosted slightly, but the impact on emissions from increased renewables is small. Solutions to the "squeezing the balloon" problem include discouraging oil and natural gas as well, or adding a carbon price, which addresses all fossil fuels together.
Price-Demand Feedback. Discouraging coal also slightly reduces energy demand (see graphs “Total Primary Energy” and “Average Price of Energy to Consumers”). When energy prices are higher, people tend to use energy more efficiently and conserve energy. However, tax policies must be implemented with considerations for poor and working-class communities who can be negatively impacted by high energy prices. Learn more.
Potential Co-Benefits of Discouraging Coal🔗
- Reduced air pollutants from coal burning improves air quality and health outcomes for surrounding communities. View this in the “Air Pollution from Energy” graph.
- Less coal mining reduces heavy metal drainage and waste from mine sites, which improves water quality for people and wildlife.
Equity Considerations🔗
- Taxing coal or removing coal subsidies can raise energy costs for households and businesses that rely on coal for energy needs.
- Low-income communities often suffer the worst health outcomes yet make up the majority of individuals who produce coal. Providing pathways for these people to find new jobs will be essential.
Videos🔗
Slider Settings🔗
The Coal slider is divided into 5 input levels: highly discouraged, discouraged, less encouraged, status quo, and more encouraged. The slider combines the effects of taxes and subsidies into a single value, with positive numbers indicating a net tax and negative numbers indicating a net subsidy, relative to the price at the mine. At 0%, coal is either not being taxed or subsidized, or the taxes and subsidies offset each other so that the net effect is zero. To adjust taxes and subsidies separately, enable “use detailed settings” in the Coal advanced view.
The following table displays the numerical ranges for each input level of the Coal slider. To see what the setting means in dollars per ton, view the “Price of Coal” graph under Graphs > Financial.
| highly discouraged | discouraged | less encouraged | status quo | more encouraged | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % of price at source | +200% to +100% | +100% to 0% | 0% to -25% | -25% to -35% | -35% to -50% |
The coal industry is currently heavily subsidized, reflected in the “status quo” setting of a 30% subsidy. If you want to simulate the removal of these subsidies, move the main slider to 0%, or in the advanced view, enable “use detailed settings” and move the “Coal subsidy” slider to 0%. Read more in the explainer on energy supply subsidies and taxes in En-ROADS.
Model Structure🔗
The cost of coal affects three significant decisions regarding energy infrastructure:
- Investment in new capacity (whether or not to build new processing and power plants)
- Use of capacity (whether to run existing plants)
- Retirement of capacity (whether to keep plants longer or shorter than the average of ~30 years)
Case Studies🔗
United States: Replacing all coal-powered electricity in the US with solar power could save 52,000 lives per year, which is more than the number of people employed by the coal industry today.2
United States: The total cost of reliance on coal to the US economy is estimated to be $344 billion per year. Of that cost, $187B is from air pollution, $74.6B is from public health effects in Appalachia, and $61.7B from climate damages.3
India: A one gigawatt increase in coal-fired capacity corresponds to a nearly 15% increase in infant mortality in areas close to coal power plants. The effect was largest for older plants, plants in areas with relatively higher pollution levels, and plants burning domestic rather than imported coal.4
FAQs🔗
How can I directly force deeper reductions in coal use? Consider changing the “Reduce new coal infrastructure,” “% Reduction in coal utilization,” and “Coal plant accelerated retirement” sliders in the advanced view.
How do I encourage carbon capture and storage (CCS)? En-ROADS has three options to encourage CCS:
- CCS subsidy: In the advanced view of the Coal, Natural Gas, and Bioenergy sliders, you can set a subsidy to promote CCS for each fuel type.
- Carbon Price: CCS is also encouraged for all fuels if a carbon price is set, unless the “Carbon price encourages carbon capture and storage (CCS)” switch in the advanced view of the slider is turned off.
- Clean Electricity Standard: In the advanced view of the Carbon Price slider, you can also test a clean electricity standard that counts CCS as a qualifying source of clean power. However, due to the high cost of CCS, this policy alone may not significantly boost its adoption without additional subsidies.
Read the Explainer for more information: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in En-ROADS
Why does coal demand decline and then rise again in the En-ROADS Baseline Scenario?
Why are the slider ranges (min and max) what they are? How did you decide the range of the sliders?
What happens to the revenue from taxes or a carbon price in En-ROADS?
Please visit support.climateinteractive.org for additional inquiries and support.
Footnotes
[1]: Markandya, A. & Wilkinson, P. (2007). Electricity generation and health. The Lancet, 370(9591), 979-990. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61253-7
[2]: Prehoda, E. W., & Pearce, J. M. (2017). Potential lives saved by replacing coal with solar photovoltaic electricity production in the U.S. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 80, 710–715.
[3]: Epstein, P. R., Buonocore, J. J., Eckerle, K., Hendryx, M., Iii, B. M. S., Heinberg, R., … Glustrom, L. (2011). Full cost accounting for the life cycle of coal. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1219(1), 73–98.
[4]: Barrows, G., Garg, T., & Jha, A. (2019). The Health Costs of Coal-Fired Power Plants in India. SSRN.