imgTranElecIcon Transport – Electrification

Increase or decrease purchases of new electric cars, trucks, buses, trains, and ships. Using electric motors for transport helps reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution if the electricity is from low-carbon sources like solar and wind.

Examples

  • Investments into electric vehicle charging infrastructure.
  • Research and development into the technologies for vehicles, batteries, and charging.
  • Corporate commitments to sales of electric vehicles.
  • Programs to offer rebates and incentives to electric car purchases.

Big Message

  • If the world is dependent on coal and natural gas for electric power, the net effect of electrification is only a slight change in in emissions and temperature.
  • Switching to electric modes of transport makes the biggest impact for the climate when electrical energy sources are low-carbon.

Key Dynamics

  • As you increase Transport Electrification, there are two main forces that affect future temperature:
    • Overall efficiency is greater for electrified transport than for internal combustion engines – in general, less fuel is used to power transport with electricity than oil.
    • Oil, in the “Global Sources of Primary Energy” graph, goes down as we electrify transport. At the same time, increased electrical demand is powered by coal and, to a more limited extent, renewables (in the absence of a carbon price or other taxes).

Potential Co-Benefits of Encouraging Electrification

  • Improved air quality from fewer internal combustion engines increases healthcare savings and worker productivity.
  • Jobs are created in the manufacturing and sales of electric batteries and engines.

Equity Considerations

  • Although costs are coming down, electric vehicles may not be affordable or available to everyone.
  • Mining of lithium and copper, two necessary ingredients for the batteries used in electric vehicles, can be damaging to precious ecosystems and threaten the well-being of communities near mining sites. [1]
  • Electric charging station locations may not be accessible or the electric battery range may be insufficient for some situations.

Slider Settings

The variable being changed is the annual growth rate of electricity used in new transport capital such as vehicles, trains, and ships.

discouraged status quo incentivized highly incentivized
Annual rate -3% to -1% -1% to +1% +1% to +3% +3% to +5%

Model Structure

This input directly forces growth of electrification up toward a maximum percentage, unlike the inputs for energy sources, which change the financial attractiveness to drive future behavior.

This input affects climate outcomes through two pathways:

  1. Changing energy demand. The efficiency for electrified energy use is greater than for the direct burning of coal, oil, and gas.
  2. Changing fuel mix. Increased electrification decreases use of oil but then increases use of coal, natural gas, and renewables in electricity generation.

Footnotes

[1]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-06-11/saving-the-planet-with-electric-cars-means-strangling-this-desert